Bitcoin surged on March 3 after Donald Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve, only to erase gains following erratic tariff announcements the following days. 

Friday’s White House crypto summit, expected to be a turning point, fell flat. Trump met with top crypto executives, promising to ease Biden-era regulations, but offered only vague commitments. Instead of rallying, the market has declined further. 

A silver lining for Bitcoin came with Friday’s weak jobs report, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve intervention. Historically, Bitcoin benefits when interest rates fall. Although this is yet to be reflected in the price. 

Technically, BTC/USD is testing the first support on the pitchfork indicator, with the money flow index suggesting no buying pressure at the moment. A drop below Monday’s low of $81,620 could invalidate any bullish outlook. 

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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The Euro and pound have extended their respective runs against the US dollar to their highest level since November 2024, but we are seeing some profit-taking ahead of the North American open. This would also make sense on account of the aggressive moves we’ve been seeing and ahead of the European Central Bank event risk.

As per our special report preview, the ECB is expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points. Another variable that could be playing into things right now is renewed downside pressure on US stocks, with equity futures under a good deal of pressure. Clearly, all of the geopolitical risk and trade tension are factoring into the negative sentiment. Sluggish US economic data and slumping oil haven’t helped the picture either.

Earlier today, Eurozone and UK construction PMIs were a miss, along with Eurozone retail sales, which have only added to the recent selling pressure on the Euro and pound. Looking ahead, aside from the already mentioned ECB decision, we get Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, Canada IVPM, BoE speak, and Fed speak.

We also get the emergency summit of European leaders in Brussels to discuss further support for Ukraine and defense matters. Another important focus today will be on any updates around the current state of affairs with respect to US tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.      

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said the U.S. is enforcing sanctions on Iran for “immediate maximum impact,” warning that Iranians should move their money out of the rial.  

The goal is to cut Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero. 

His comments came as oil prices fell to multiyear lows on Wednesday, driven by concerns that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could slow economic growth and weaken crude demand.  

Following Bessent’s remarks, both U.S. crude and Brent prices turned positive, with JP Morgan analysts noting that a decline in Iranian supply is currently the only bullish factor for oil prices. 

Bessent also signaled that the administration is prepared to impose full-scale sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine. This is a welcome shift from the Trump administration, who so far has only been pressuring the victim of the war rather than the perpetrator.  

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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The Euro and pound have been on impressive runs of late. Both currencies stand out as clear outperformers, trading at fresh yearly highs against the buck and reaching their highest levels against the US dollar since early November. They may be benefiting as alternative safe-haven options in a market that is increasingly cautious about the unpredictability of the US dollar due to shifting US administration policies.

The Euro is also getting a boost from news of the German government’s infrastructure fund and hotter-than-expected Eurozone inflation data. Meanwhile, Aussie GDP came in mostly in line with expectations, and the RBA pushed back against the idea of additional rate cuts despite dovish-leaning market pricing.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if tensions ease regarding US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Adding to the Canadian dollar’s challenges, slumping oil prices have also weighed on the currency.

As for the calendar, key events for the remainder of the day include US ADP employment data, a speech by BoE Governor Bailey, US ISM Services, Factory Orders, and the Fed’s Beige Book.

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.      

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The White House confirmed a one-month exemption for autos under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), following President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. 

The exemption has significant consequences for Mexico’s economy, with tariffs expected to add billions in costs for automakers that rely on Mexican production. 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to discuss tariffs with Trump on Thursday, before her government announces countermeasures on Sunday. 

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator initially showed a potential bullish signal as moving averages crossed upward. However, momentum appears to be fading, and the pair has yet to retest its February 3rd highs. 

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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Later this week on Thursday, we get the European Central Bank policy decision. The overwhelming expectation heading into the event risk is that the ECB will go ahead and cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. Euro area economic activity has been sluggish of late, and the central bank’s move to cut rates will help stimulate growth. Indeed, inflation data has also shown signs of easing, which has only helped to strengthen the case for lower rates.

At the same time, the ECB will need to be careful, as underlying inflation pressures remain more resilient. But for now, a path forward in which the ECB is leaning towards lower rates makes sense, especially at a time when the central bank is contending with added stress around trade tension, geopolitical risk, and political shifts in France and Germany.

As far as the market reaction goes, we believe the balance of risk leans towards more Euro upside than downside against the US dollar. We say this because so much bearishness is already priced in, leaving little room for the Euro to trade much lower on confirmation of a dovish decision. This suggests anything that deviates from this expectation could inspire a decent amount of demand. We are already seeing formidable demand from medium- and longer-term players on dips below 1.03.

Looking ahead, we get Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, construction spending, and some Fed speak.

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.      

The post Previewing Thursday’s ECB Decision | FX Research appeared first on BlackBull Markets.

OK, so it’s finally happened. On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products facing a separate 10% tariff. Tariffs on Chinese imports were also doubled from 10% to 20%. 

In response, Canada imposed immediate 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend them to another CA$125 billion in the coming weeks. While USD/CAD maintained a steady upward movement, it is difficult to characterize the move as a broad-based selloff. Maybe this is more of a trade scuffle than a trade war right now? 

China announced additional tariffs of 10% to 15% on U.S. agricultural products, effective March 10. Mexico is set to announce its own retaliatory tariffs on March 9. 

Now, the focus shifts to Trump’s next move. He has already suggested he will reciprocate the reciprocation. Where does this end? Full blown trade war? Meanwhile, reports suggest he is considering easing sanctions on Russia.  

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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Investors come into the new week with some hope that we will see a de-escalation in trade tension. US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, though there have been indications that there is good reason to believe it won’t be the 25% tariffs that President Trump had said initially.

Risk assets have responded accordingly, with the US dollar off across the board except against the yen, and US equity futures pointing up. The euro has gotten an added boost after inflation data came out hotter than expected. The ECB is expected to cut rates later this week, but the inflation data could influence a less dovish policy stance from the ECB.

Looking ahead, we get Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, construction spending, and some Fed speak.

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.      

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Bitcoin has fallen below the 78.6% retracement of Sunday’s surge and is now less than 2K above the level it was at when Trump tweeted about a strategic reserve including Bitcoin and a few altcoins. 

Some of the smaller cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump—Cardano, Solana, and Ripple—are holding up slightly better but have also dropped. 

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, whose company holds nearly 500,000 BTC, strongly endorsed Trump’s proposed strategic crypto reserve in a CNBC interview. Saylor also predicted Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $20 trillion and eventually $200 trillion, projecting a price of $13 million per BTC by 2045. In a bullish scenario, he sees Bitcoin hitting $49 million, while a bearish case could still put it at $3 million. 

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 6 meeting, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. All 82 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the cut. 

So, with this in the bag, the focus shifts to what comes next. Markets see a 60% chance of another cut in April, but hawkish policymakers like Isabel Schnabel are pushing back. 

According to ING, a key signal will be whether the ECB drops the term “restrictive” from its stance. If it does, a pause could follow; if not, further cuts may be likely. 

Overall, though, the ECB is unlikely to provide detailed forward guidance. Factors like U.S. tariffs and developments in Ukraine could significantly impact the eurozone economy, making it difficult to set a long-term policy path. 

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        

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